Part 1: Long before the dawn on mankind?

Part 1: Long before the dawn on mankind?

Harsh Mohan | Mar 23, 2020

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As the world goggled, an “international concern” exponentiated into pandemia. Regimes across the sphere turned authoritarian to contain and ultimately mitigate the threat. Authenticated by the dragon and obligated by the regimes, humanity confined itself into its caves. Despite this entirety of efforts and strength, the grappling hook of infection continues to victimize the multitude for their frivolous incaution.

Note 1: Infection Refers to ‘Covid19’ and ‘Dragon’ refers to China throughout this article

With sun setting on each day, with sick bays in hospitals getting exhausted, the medics present a remarkable depiction of the embodiment of selflessness, sacrifice and perseverance. Astonished by the severity though they are, the scientific community in the realms of medicine endures their prolonged battle against the clock in pursuit of a cure or a vaccine. But has the hourglass provided them enough rising suns to accomplish their objective?

But has the hourglass provided them enough rising suns to accomplish their objective?

Targeted towards prediction of the number of rising suns before the dawn on mankind exploratory analysis kicked, charts and maps drawn out. At the shallow shores of numbers was the realization of the exponential nature of infection. Exponent make statistical deduction of the resulting estimators hellacious. Methodology towards prediction was the question that linger. The variables of exponentiation encaged into the lapse of logarithm presented what the commune recognized as the straight line, a silver line.

Note 2: In all the graphs below, 22nd of January, 2020 is considered as day 1 and all the dates can be calculated thereafter. (This has been done considering the fact that significant amount of data was publicly available since this date.)

Note 3: All the graphs below takes into consideration the total number of confirmed cases across the globe except that of China. Reason being, situation there has stablized for the time being and hence hampers the analysis in general.

Neither of the two plots are a perfect exponentiation nor a perfect line. However, estimators can now be calculated. A Simple Linear Regression Model is the rescuer. The commune identifies significant parameters of slope and intercept of the silver line, uses the plot and data to determine these elements of significance thereby generating the relation between the number of infection’s and the number of setting suns, the Machine Model.

Note 3: The blue line resembles the original data whereas the red line resembles the data calculated by my Model

The model’s predictions are closely in resemblance of factual data. A leap towards the answer! The Model forecast the spread of gruelling infection for the fortnight. Horrifying though they are, they are representative of the existing rate of crisis at hand. Asked the Model for the quantized value of slope and intercept. It replied, calculations ensued, deductions came. The revelation is around the corner. The Model spat “66 days to go”. So, is that when the sun sets on mankind?

The Model spat “66 days to go.”

Note 4: The blue line resembles the original data whereas the red line resembles the data calculated by my Model

Note 5: “66 Days to Go” is the reply as on 23rd of March, 2020, 11:30PM. This reduces by a day with each setting sun.

Yes, that’s when the dawn sets in, but only if the infection continues to shore up at the current rate. The dragon’s curves, however, represent a blue sky amidst the thunderstorms. The point of inflection, the point where the exponential stops exponentiating and starts flattening. That’s where humanity needs to steer towards. In infection’s as such this point will be reached eventually facilitated by heard immunity. Nevertheless, this eventuality is costing humanity hundreds of lives with each setting sun. Overburdening of healthcare systems demands urgency towards achievement of this eventuality.

Note 6: The plot below represents the total number of confirmed cases vs the number of days since 22nd of January, 2020 for China.

The solution?

Lockdown! Isolation! Quarantine!

Until we have a cure, vaccine or acquired immunity.

Note 6:

  1. The author is the sole proprietor of the article, plots, equations and deductions. Hence any form of reproduction of the above in any form is not advised.
  2. The data used for the analysis is the from the World Health Organisation Database and further extrapolated by Kaggle. The author is not responsible for any errors that may have crept therein.
  3. The cover image comes courtsy John Hopkins University and Medicine: Coronavirus Resource Center
  4. Collaboration and contributions to the analysis are welcomed! Click Here
  5. Stay tuned for Part2: Beyond the official numbers!  


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